Influence diagrams contain arcs connecting nodes. We label the arcs as follows. We must first determine what kind of arcs, if any, are to be drawn. This is described in §11.4.1, with the different arc styles summarised in Table 11.4.
We will consider the case where the most detailed standard arcs might be drawn, corresponding to arc style number 7, and so we establish a scenario which might produce such details. The autoarc control can be used to draw particular arc types automatically between the nodes on an influence diagram, but we will concentrate on tailoring arcs to suit. Suppose that we adjust , and produce an influence diagram with arcs connecting the information sources nodes D, E, and F with the node B.
We define the information flows from D, E, and F singly to B as , and respectively, representing the worth of each information source in the absence of any other. The overall resolution at the node B is , representing the total information arriving at B. If we observe then diagnostic quantities for these resolutions are given by the corresponding size ratios. Thus, for the arc between node D and node B, is the ratio given by dividing the observed maximal squared change in adjustment, , by its expectation, .
We measure the information flow ``from B to D'' by the actual loss in resolution at B if node F is withdrawn from the adjustment. In our notation, this is . We measure the information flow from B to E and from B to D similarly, by and respectively. Diagnostic quantities are also available for these measures; the diagnostic quantity corresponding to is .
An assessment of how observed information sources work together (or against each other) is given by the path correlation which results when one information source is extracted. Hence, we can label the arc from node D to node B by (B), and the other nodes similarly.
The arc styles consist of (1) a straight line connecting two nodes; (2) a box containing information which is placed over the arc; and (3) a circle drawn towards the end of the arc, containing information about the path correlation. We describe the path correlation style first. A path correlation lies in . We shade the circle according to the absolute magnitude of the correlation, so that correlations of 1 and -1 result in a fully shaded circle. We shade differently, according to direction. For positive correlations, we shade a corresponding proportion of the circle anti-clockwise, starting from 0 degrees. For negative correlations, we shade a corresponding proportion of the circle clockwise, starting from 0 degrees. The size of the circle can be changed using the pcradius control.
The box of labelling information consists of a bar divided into two. The half bar nearest the information source concerns information flow from the information source to the node being adjusted, i.e. the contribution of the information source taken singly. The half bar nearest the node being adjusted concerns information flow away from the node being adjusted to the information source, i.e. the loss from extracting the information source singly.
Consider the arc drawn from D to B, where there is no data so that only influences are shown: Table 11.1 shows the contents of an arc label in this case. The region represents all the uncertainty in the destination node, proportionately 1. The region represents the uncertainty remaining after all information sources have been fitted, . The region thus represents the proprtion of uncertainty removed in the destination node B. The region represents the resolution in uncertainty in B due solely to fitting D, i.e. . Thus, when is large and is small, the implication is that the single source of information D is virtually sufficient. When is small and is large, the implication instead is that the single source of information D is virtually useless. The outer half of the label is similarly configured: is identical to , and is identical to . However, the region represents the resolution in uncertainty in B due solely to extracting D from the adjustment, i.e. . Thus, when is large and is small, the implication is that much of the resolution in uncertainty at is lost if the single source of information D is withdrawn. When is small and is large, the implication instead is that the single source of information D contributes little extra to the information supplied already by .
Now consider the case where we observe , so that we can contrast actual to expected behaviour. The label that we draw is the same, except that we make a further partition of the regions and in Table 11.1. We obtain a label which resembles that shown in Table 11.2. We partition the region according to the magnitude of the size ratio . If this ratio is bigger than 1, we shade the portion , and otherwise we shade the portion . The actual proportions of shaded depend on whether or not the ratio is larger than 1. If it is, the proportion of shaded is , where by default, but can be changed using the bigshade control. If the ratio is smaller than 1, the proportion of shaded is , where by default, but can be changed using the smallshade control. The region is partitioned similarly, except that the pertinent size ratio is . The proportions shaded are as described for , so that is shaded if this ratio is larger than one, and is shaded otherwise.
For both types of label, the labels may be modified by removing the unresolved proportions of uncertainty given by the and regions. This is achieved by adding 8 to the arc style. All other regions are then scaled up appropriately. This is useful when the actual resolution of uncertainty in the destination is very small, but when it is still important to understand information flow.
It is also possible to draw labels which emphasize the diagnostic information carried by the arc. This is achieved by adding 16 to the arc style. The effect is to obtain labels like those shown in Table 11.2, but with the regions , , , and , removed and the remaining regions scaled up.
The length and width of arc labels are set by default, but may be changed by using the arclength and arcwidth controls.