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Consistency checks for the canonical directions

 

We have determined tex2html_wrap_inline9116 and tex2html_wrap_inline9108 , and we can similarly obtain the adjusted expectation for any linear combination of tex2html_wrap_inline8580 and tex2html_wrap_inline8582 .gif In particular, we can evaluate the adjusted expectation for each canonical direction and determine their corresponding standardised values:

eqnarray909

In each case, these adjusted values are changes from prior expectations of zero. The standardised changes are

eqnarray915

Thus, there are changes over both directions of the belief grid, but the change for the second direction (about which we are reducing uncertainty hardly at all, because we have seen that its resolution is tex2html_wrap_inline9142 ) is somewhat larger than expected, and warns us of a possible complication that may need investigation.

Examination of the standardised adjusted expectation formula for tex2html_wrap_inline8966 (shown in section 4.5) shows us that the more influential quantity is tex2html_wrap_inline8550 . This serves as yet another warning that tex2html_wrap_inline8550 has some peculiar feature.



David Wooff
Thu Oct 15 12:20:04 BST 1998