- ...follows
- The
specifications are the result of a genuine attempt to express plausible
beliefs for the problem, but are not the judgements of an expert.
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- ...
- This is because we
consider as representing the sum of a base level, ,
plus a difference, ; and is informative for
via .
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- ...sense.
- For example, for a traditional regression of on
, various linear combinations of the 's
give estimators for . Each such estimator possesses properties
which we assess in order to determine whether the estimator is likely to
yield good estimates, and so forth.
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- ...it
- We
identify any quantity having zero variance with zero. Thus, the number
of mutually uncorrelated quantities in the structure represents the
number of underlying different axes of variation. For example if a
belief structure, , consisted of specifications over the three
quantities , and if we knew that ,
and had specified variances coherently, then there would be at most two
different axes of variation over .
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- ... .
- A property of the adjusted expectation is that
it is a linear operator, so that for any scalars and
we have
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- ...adjustment:
- When it is the
case that the current adjustment variance is already a small fraction of
the initial variance, a further variance reduction might represent only
a small partial resolution. However, this might also represent a
substantial reduction relative to the current adjustment variance.
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- ...reasons,
- For example, we might remove uninformative quantities,
or quantities that are relatively unimportant and expensive to
observe.
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- ...restrictions
- There are various restrictions like this which
vary from machine to machine. The principal restrictions can be found by
issuing the LOOK: (program) command.
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- ...letter
- Many of the
punctuation symbols have a special meaning in [B/D].
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- ...program.
- A summary of the possible arguments
to the LOOK: command, together with their meanings, can be seen
by issuing the command with a question mark as argument:
LOOK: (?).
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- ...bases
- We can use wildcard facilities to
generate complicated bases quickly. In particular, the symbol `$' after
a name means all those elements whose names match as far as the `$'
symbol; for example we could have used ``B$'' as shorthand for ``B1,
B2'' above.
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- ...1
- [B/D]
allows several different belief stores, indexed by store numbers,
intended for alternative belief specifications.
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- ...defined
- Recall that ``B'' and ``D''
are the names of our two bases. Had they been called ``bacon'' and
``eggs'', we would have issued the command ADJUST: [bacon/eggs].
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- ...configuration
- [B/D] has a default configuration
which allows us to analyse straightforward problems without worrying too
much about esoterica. In general, though, we have to consider the
settings of the various [B/D] controls which control the action of
the program. We will see some of these controls in use later.
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- ...HREF="node45.html#figgrid">14.
- We can issue
the command without the ``+'' symbol, yielding only the canonical
resolutions.
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- ...retain
- Much of [B/D]'s output is, or can be, retained for
further use, perhaps as fresh input to the program. Some quantities are
retained automatically: these include summaries of the latest
adjustment, for example. Other quantities can be retained if you set the
relevant control.
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- ...construction
- The assignments
Y1 and Y2 still exist, but we can forget them for the time
being.
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- ...command
- The standard LOOK: command
thus consists of a list of options in parentheses, optionally followed
by a list of items, meaning that detail is to be restricted to these
items. Such restrictions are relevant to only a subset of the possible
options.
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- ...it.
- There are other ways of asking [B/D] to perform sequences
of adjustments, suited to different contexts. There are also facilities
which help to automate the partial adjustment process for
sequences in a manner similar to some traditional stepwise regression
approaches.
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