The Bayes linear approach, which is based on partial belief specification with expectation as primitive, allows the straightforward construction of models reflecting second-order exchangeability. The approach requires only a small number of belief statements over observables.
Consider, for example, a simple case: a single infinite, exchangeable sequence of vectors , for example, blood pressure, temperature, etc., measured on a sequence of patients. All that we must specify is the common expectation vector and variance matrix, for each , and the common covariance matrix between each pair and . From these three specifications, we can generate an exchangeability representation for the sequence as a combination of an underlying population vector and individual variation vector , so that, for each i, , where is an uncorrelated sequence of vectors, each with zero mean vector and the same variance matrix, all of which are uncorrelated with (see [5]). Under this representation, we require as specifications the expectation vector and variance matrix over the mean components, and ; and also the residual vector variance matrix, .
Learning about future values from observations on a collection is equivalent to learning about in the exchangeability representation, so that prediction and estimation are equivalent. We may show further that the vector of sample means from the observed sample is Bayes linear sufficient for prediction of future observations, and that the canonical directions for an adjustment under exchangeability do not depend on the sample size. Therefore, the specification and adjustment of exchangeable beliefs is particularly simple.
Discussions of the principles and practice of adjustment for exchangeable beliefs are given in [5] and [2], and in detail in [10].