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Exchangeability

The Bayes linear approach, which is based on partial belief specification with expectation as primitive, allows the straightforward construction of models reflecting second-order exchangeability. The approach requires only a small number of belief statements over observables.

Consider, for example, a simple case: a single infinite, exchangeable sequence of vectors tex2html_wrap_inline2337 , for example, blood pressure, temperature, etc., measured on a sequence of patients. All that we must specify is the common expectation vector and variance matrix, for each tex2html_wrap_inline2339 , and the common covariance matrix between each pair tex2html_wrap_inline2339 and tex2html_wrap_inline2343 . From these three specifications, we can generate an exchangeability representation for the sequence as a combination of an underlying population vector tex2html_wrap_inline2345 and individual variation vector tex2html_wrap_inline2347 , so that, for each i, tex2html_wrap_inline2349 , where tex2html_wrap_inline2351 is an uncorrelated sequence of vectors, each with zero mean vector and the same variance matrix, all of which are uncorrelated with tex2html_wrap_inline2345 (see [5]). Under this representation, we require as specifications the expectation vector and variance matrix over the mean components, tex2html_wrap_inline2355 and tex2html_wrap_inline2357 ; and also the residual vector variance matrix, tex2html_wrap_inline2359 .

Learning about future values tex2html_wrap_inline2369 from observations on a collection tex2html_wrap_inline2361 is equivalent to learning about tex2html_wrap_inline2345 in the exchangeability representation, so that prediction and estimation are equivalent. We may show further that the vector of sample means from the observed sample tex2html_wrap_inline2361 is Bayes linear sufficient for prediction of future observations, and that the canonical directions for an adjustment under exchangeability do not depend on the sample size. Therefore, the specification and adjustment of exchangeable beliefs is particularly simple.

Discussions of the principles and practice of adjustment for exchangeable beliefs are given in [5] and [2], and in detail in [10].



David Wooff
Thu Oct 15 11:27:04 BST 1998