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Partial variances

 

Every additional adjustment has the potential to reduce further the uncertainty in our quantities of interest. The extra variance reductions due to these partial adjustments are called partial resolved variances. When we adjust by tex2html_wrap_inline8550 in addition to tex2html_wrap_inline8546 , the extra reductions in variance for tex2html_wrap_inline8580 and tex2html_wrap_inline8582 are as follows:

eqnarray1050

with resolutions

eqnarray1056

Thus, the partial effect of adjusting by tex2html_wrap_inline8550 additionally is negligible: relative to the initial uncertainty in tex2html_wrap_inline8582 , we achieve a further reduction in uncertainty of only some 1.18%, and the relative reduction in variance for tex2html_wrap_inline8580 is smaller still.

We may also evaluate the reductions in uncertainty relative to the adjustment variances for the current adjustment:gif

eqnarray1066

Thus, relative to the adjusted variances calculated for the initial adjustment, tex2html_wrap_inline9326 , we see reductions of only 0.64% and 1.22% for tex2html_wrap_inline8580 and tex2html_wrap_inline8582 respectively; and relative to the former adjustment uncertainty tex2html_wrap_inline9332 a further reduction in uncertainty for the overall belief structure tex2html_wrap_inline8554 of only 1.64%. The conclusion seems quite clear: from the point of view of reducing uncertainties, tex2html_wrap_inline8550 as an additional source of information is almost worthless; tex2html_wrap_inline8546 alone carries most of the information.

The notation that we use here, tex2html_wrap_inline9340 for example, reflects the fact that after the initial adjustment by tex2html_wrap_inline8546 , it is as though we focus attention on the portion of tex2html_wrap_inline8580 that remains uncertain, namely tex2html_wrap_inline9346 , the adjusted version of tex2html_wrap_inline8580 given tex2html_wrap_inline8546 . Now a partial adjustment by tex2html_wrap_inline8548 of the original quantity tex2html_wrap_inline8580 is equivalent to an initial adjustment of the adjusted version (which has prior variance tex2html_wrap_inline9356 ) by tex2html_wrap_inline8548 .



David Wooff
Thu Oct 15 12:20:04 BST 1998