Statistical modelling for health economics
Rachel Oughton
Health economics is essentially about maximising the amount of health gained within a given budget.
Given a range of different interventions, treatments, surgical procedures, vaccine programmes and so on, how do we decide which combination of options will be the most beneficial overall?

A big issue in health economics is the amount of uncertainty inherent in making healthcare decisions for a population.
- How many people will get ill with a particular disease?
- How will different people react to a treatment?
- How effective is a vaccine?
- What affects uptake for screening programmes?
- ...
Economic evaluation in healthcare therefore involves the use of many different statistical and mathematical models, to cater for the huge variety of scenarios. If you'd like to read about some of these, some examples are given below.
- Probabilistic sensitivity analysis in health economics (Baio et. al. 2015) use the example of a flu vaccination programme
- Managing structural uncertainty in health economic decision models: a discrepancy approach (Strong et. al. 2012) presents a Bayesian method for modelling structural uncertainty in models such as the one above by Baio.
- Choosing an epidemiological model structure for the economic evaluation of non-communicable disease public health interventions (Briggs et. al. 2016) gives an excellent overview of different tools for modelling non-communicable diseases
- Health Economic Decision Tree Models of Diagnostics for Dummies: A Pictorial Primer gives an introduction to the use of decision trees in health economic modelling
- Health outcomes in economic evaluation: the QALY and utilities (Whitehead et. al. 2010) explore the Quality Adjusted LifeYear (QALY), the most widely used measure of heatlh.

This project offers a huge amount of freedom, to explore whichever area of health economic modelling most interests you, or to focus on a particular methodology. It is likely to involve some programming in implementing models, and is also likely to be based on journal articles more than textbooks.
Prerequisites/Corequisites