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Graphic assessments of adjustments via canonical quantities

Consider a standard Bayes linear influence diagram for the adjustment of B by D, and then partially by F, and suppose also that observations d and f become available. The adjustment by D results in a portion of the B node's outer sector being shaded to show the proportion of uncertainty across the collection B, tex2html_wrap_inline38364 , resolved by adjusting by D. Additionally, the corresponding inner sector is shaded according to the magnitude and direction (too big/too small) of the size ratio for the adjustment, tex2html_wrap_inline37658 . Both shadings (outer and inner) reflect summaries across the collection B assessed for D globally. A further partial adjustment by F induces similar shadings for the partial adjustment, so that an extra portion of B's outer node is shaded to reflect the extra variance resolution tex2html_wrap_inline38368 from fitting on F in addition to D, and the corresponding inner node shading depicts the partial size ratio tex2html_wrap_inline38370 .

The idea behind the canonical wheel influence diagrams is to partition the global summaries tex2html_wrap_inline38364 , tex2html_wrap_inline38368 , according to the canonical quantities generated by the two adjustments. This follows naturally as follows. Suppose that the adjustment of B has r canonical quantities tex2html_wrap_inline38424 with resolutions tex2html_wrap_inline38376 . Then the global proportion of variance resolved, tex2html_wrap_inline38364 is naturally partitioned into tex2html_wrap_inline38380 , where tex2html_wrap_inline38426 is by convention the amount of prior uncertainty in the collection B. Therefore, the nodal area represented by tex2html_wrap_inline37648 can be partitioned into what we term r spokes, each of which is a sector corresponding to a canonical quantity tex2html_wrap_inline38432 , with outer node shading tex2html_wrap_inline38386 .

If there are observations then we also shade part of each inner spoke to show diagnostics. The diagnostics shown are essentially the values of the size ratios for the canonical quantities, and are thus more-or-less comparable with the diagnostic shadings shown for standard influence diagrams. A slightly different scaling strategy has been chosen, however, as follows. The proportion of area shaded depends on the value of the corresponding size ratio, tex2html_wrap_inline38388 , divided by a threshhold set by the spokeshade  control, which is at 8.0 by default. Proportions larger than unity are clipped at unity. Therefore by default, size ratios of 4.0, 8.0, and 12.0 will result in 50%, 100%, and 100% inner sector shadings. Threshholds should be chosen so that a very surprising size ratio (``surprisingness'' can vary from context to context) results in about full diagnostic shading, so that the degree of shading conveys the degree of alarm. Bear in mind that the prior expectation of every size ratio is unity. The colour of the shading can be altered using the spokecolour  control.

The partial adjustment similarly results in a collection of partial canonical quantities which form a natural partition for the global summaries for the partial adjustment. Thus, we partition the sector previously corresponding to the partial resolved uncertainty into separate spokes, depending upon the number of partial canonical quantities, i.e. the rank of the partial resolution matrix. Size ratio diagnostics are shaded accordingly and similarly.

Sometimes the number of canonical quantities for an adjustment can be so large that too many spokes would be drawn on the canonical wheel, so offering little value as a means of understanding an adjustment. In such cases you can reduce the number of spokes that are drawn by using the spokes  control. If you wish to see shadings for the first q<r canonical directions only, use the spokes  control to limit the number of spokes drawn to q canonical quantities. This will then produce node shadings for q+1 spokes, with the extra shading in the final spoke aggregating the resolved uncertainty and diagnostic information for the last q-r canonical directions. The amount of outer and inner shading drawn for the aggregated spokes will sum to the same amount of shading that would have been observed had all the spokes been drawn.

Note that the spokes are drawn anticlockwise in order of magnitude of the canonical resolutions. The areas given over to successive canonical quantities thus typically decline. Full diagnostic shading for a spoke (indicating very surprising changes in expectation) can have very little visual impact for canonical quantities with only small canonical resolutions: mostly we should not be too alarmed about bizarre occurrences in otherwise unimportant directions.


next up previous contents index
Next: Defining titles for influence Up: Producing canonical wheels Previous: Overview

David Wooff
Wed Oct 21 15:14:31 BST 1998