There are many different explorations of the beliefs and data that we
could make. For our first example, we will assess the value of observing
the collection and the extra value of
observing the collection
. We will draw
influence diagrams to portray the expected effects of adjustment,
calculated a priori, together with diagnostics comparing what we
expected to what actually happened. We will examine individual aspects
of the belief adjustment with respect to each of the four slope and
intercept quantities
, as well as overall aspects of the
belief adjustment with respect to the collection
containing
them. To do this, it is necessary first to design the influence diagram,
and second to carry out the relevant adjustments.