For our actual observations we evaluate the adjusted expectations shown above, and so obtain
Our notation here is that refers to our adjusted expectation
for
in the light of the information contained in
,
having observed
. From the point of view of the Doctor, her belief
specifications and the observations
and
that
she makes when she performs the ogt-test upon herself, are consistent
with her revising her expectations upwards for both
and
. In the case of the fasting blood-glucose measurement, the
analysis shows a revision upwards from 4.16 to 4.71; and in the case of
the following two-hour measurement, a revision upward from 6.25 to 6.91.
Informally, as a very rough guide to the locations of and
, we might decide to take intervals of about two standard
deviations in either direction from the expectation as being fairly
likely to contain the relevant locations. For the prior assessments we
have approximately the intervals
For the assessments after adjusting by we obtain the smaller
intervals
The adjusted expectation for the two-hour blood-glucose measurement is 6.91, implying that an average healthy elderly patient will have a two-hour reading on the borderline between being diagnosed as healthy and being diagnosed as having impaired glucose tolerance. Put another way, about half of the elderly will be misdiagnosed according to the threshholds set for this ogt-test. Additionally, the fasting blood-glucose level has adjusted expectation 4.71; suggesting that the elderly have a slightly higher fasting level than do the young. Consequently the analysis suggests that there are static differences between the blood-glucose levels for the young and the elderly; and dynamic differences between their abilities to cope with fluctuations in blood-glucose levels.