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Belief structures

The formal structure which is described by our belief specification is as follows. We have a collection of random quantities tex2html_wrap_inline3504 , each with finite prior variance. We construct the linear space tex2html_wrap_inline3556 consisting of all finite linear combinations

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of the elements of C, where tex2html_wrap_inline3207 is the unit constant. We view tex2html_wrap_inline3556 as a vector space in which each tex2html_wrap_inline3159 is a vector, and linear combinations of vectors are the corresponding linear combinations of the random quantities. tex2html_wrap_inline3556 is in general the largest structure over which expectations are defined once we have defined expectations for the elements of C.

Covariance defines an inner product tex2html_wrap_inline3562 and norm over tex2html_wrap_inline3556 , defined, for tex2html_wrap_inline3566 to be

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The vector space, tex2html_wrap_inline3556 , with the covariance inner product tex2html_wrap_inline3574 , defines an inner product space, which we denote tex2html_wrap_inline3576 . We call tex2html_wrap_inline3576 a belief structure with base tex2html_wrap_inline3235 .gif In this space, the `length' of any vector is equal to the standard deviation of the random quantity.

A belief structure provides the minimal formal structuring for a belief specification which is sufficient for our general analyses. A traditional discrete probability space is represented within this formulation by a base consisting of indicator functions over a partition, so that the vectors are the linear combinations of the indicator functions, or, equivalently, the random variables over the probability space. A continuous probability specification is expressed as the Hilbert space of square integrable functions over the space with respect to the prior measure. In the probability specification, all covariances between all such pairs of random quantities over the space must be specified. The belief structure allows us to restrict, by our choice of base, the specification to any linear subspace of this collection, so that we may specify only those aspects of our beliefs which we are both able and willing to quantify. Therefore, the formal properties of our approach follow from the linearity underlying the inner product structure, which is why we term our approach Bayes linear.

In the following sections, we describe various general properties of belief adjustment. In the final section, we return to the geometry underlying this approach, and describe the formal structure of the analysis.


next up previous
Next: Adjusting beliefs by data Up: Quantifying uncertainty Previous: Belief specification

David Wooff
Thu Oct 15 11:56:54 BST 1998