Probability in the North East Workshop

4 March 2025

Organisers: Robin Stephenson and Jonathan Jordan (Sheffield)

Venue: University of Sheffield, Hicks Building, Room J11

Attendence is free but registration is required for organisational purposes, by emailing Robin Stephenson by Tuesday 25 February, also mentioning any special dietary requirements you may have. Limited funding is available to support the attendance of UK-based researchers, with priority for PhD students and early-career researchers. Please contact the organisers if you wish to request this.

This event is supported by an LMS Scheme 3 grant, and Additional Funding Programme for Mathematical Sciences, delivered by (EPSRC EP/V521917/1 - Heilbronn Institute) and (EP/V521929/1 - INI).

Programme

12:30-13:30
Lunch (Room I15)
13:30-14:30
Eleanor Archer (Université Paris-Dauphine)
We consider critical percolation on a supercritical Galton-Watson tree with mean offspring m > 1. It is well known that the critical percolation probability for this model is 1/m and that the root cluster has the distribution of a critical Galton-Watson tree. For this reason, many properties of the cluster are well understood, such as aymptotics for long range survival probabilities, the size of the n-th generation conditioned on survival (the “Yaglom limit”), and convergence of the entire cluster to a branching process/stable tree. All of these results as stated are annealed, that is, we take the expectation with respect to the distribution of the tree and the percolation configuration simultaneously. The goal of this talk is to consider the quenched regime: are the same properties true for almost any realisation of the tree? We will see that this is indeed the case, although some scaling constants will depend on the tree.

Based on joint works with Quirin Vogel and Tanguy Lions.
14:30-15:00
Break
15:00-16:00
Cyril Marzouk (École polytechnique)
Random planar maps are simple models for random (discrete) surfaces. Usually two very different point of views are taken to study limits of large maps: the scaling limits, leading to continuum surfaces that describe the macroscopic behaviour, and the local limits, leading to infinite discrete graphs that describe the microscopic behaviour. In this talk we will stand at a mesoscopic scale, and study limits of maps conditioned to have a fixed large number of vertices, edges, and faces at the same time, and the limit will be continuum objects (trees in fact) glued along an infinite discrete graph structure.
16:00-16:30
Ben Andrews (University of Sheffield)
In this talk, we introduce a misere tree searching game, where players take turns to guess vertices in a tree with a secret ‘poisoned’ vertex. After each turn, the guessed vertex is removed from the tree and the game continues on the component containing the poisoned vertex, and as soon as a player guesses the poisoned vertex, they lose. We describe the solution when the game is played on a path graph, both between two optimal players and between a player who makes their decisions uniformly at random and an opponent who plays to exploit this. We show that, with two perfect players, the solution involves different guessing strategies depending on the value of n modulo 4. We then show that, with a random and an exploitative player, the probability that the exploitative player wins approaches a constant (approximately 0.599) as n increases, and that the vertices one away from the leaves of the path are always optimal guesses for them. We also solve the game played on a star graph, and briefly discuss the possibility for extending the analysis to more general trees.
16:30-17:00
Break
17:00-18:00
Leandro Chiarini (Durham University)
In this talk, I will present a model called overpopulation branching random walk. In this model, when there are at least k particles at a site, every k-tuple deletes itself at rate 1. We demonstrate that for k≥3 on a regular tree, the model exhibits a non-monotone phase transition. That is, the process survives with positive probability at both low and high branching rates but becomes extinct for intermediate branching rates. Time permitting, I will also discuss a variant of the SIS model with similar phase transition on Z^d. This is based on joint work with Alexandre Stauffer (King's College London) and Thomas Finn (former Durham University).